BobHarris.com - Afghanistan: US/NATO alienating populace as Taliban launch large new offensive

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Afghanistan: US/NATO alienating populace as Taliban launch large new offensive

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Tuesday, 19 June 2007

Man, there's a lot of bad news, all in this one story.

Btw, while we're on it: the Pakistan government cut a deal last September granting autonomy to North Waziristan, a remote section along the imaginary Afghan border. (I say "imaginary" here, despite rivers and whatnot, because the British drew it for their own purposes through the heart of Pashtun land -- a bit like, I dunno, Germany drawing a big diagonal line through France from the Loire to the Rhone, then declaring the two sides separate countries. The locals weren't exactly on board, so historically, it makes the US/Mexico border look like a thick brick wall. It's really not useful to think of Afghanistan and Pakistan as all that separate.)

What that deal seems to have meant, in simple terms: the Taliban (who are Pashtun; Al-Qaeda, such as it is, is a bunch of foreigners, Arab and Uzbek and whatnot), who were supported by the Pakistani government for years in the first place, got control of the Pakistan side of the border, in exchange for promising, basically, to make sure everyone there plays nice. This is reportedly working out about as well as you'd guess.

The deal may soon collapse in any case, but here's the even worse news: it basically reflected existing reality anyway; the central government has very little authority in the border regions. And Pakistan's government looks out, curiously enough, for its own interests and stability, so there's a limited amount they'll eagerly take on to change the situation.

Meanwhile, the US and NATO are downstairs on the other side of the line, with little choice but to play off the back foot. Since the Taliban got its butt kicked after 9-11, most Americans I talk to seem to think that the deal is mostly closed. Nothing like it.

My next book is all about this sort of stuff, btw. More about that here soon.