The Cleveland Indians won 8 more games than I thought they would, finishing with the Central Division title and tied for the best record in all of baseball.

Nobody remembers that stuff in two years, of course, unless you win the World Series.  But still.  If you’re an Indians fan, it’s kind of a big deal.

Fun season.  The team got off to a seriously hot start, then played only about .500 ball for a couple of months, eventually slacking of to pace that would have bullseyed the 88-win level.  But in late July, they acquired Kenny Lofton, not realizing that his skills have begun to erode significantly with age, and batted him near or at the top of the lineup, thinking this might add some pop.

Umm… no, as became obvious pretty quickly.  When Lofton batted either first or second, the Indians went 6-11, scoring an average of 3.4 runs per game, down a full run and a half from their previous output.  Suddenly this above-average team started looking like they might struggle to break .500 by the end..

Finally, on August 25, the team figured out the problem, dropped Lofton and Casey Blake down in the order, and gave more playing time to promising youngster Franklin Gutierrez.  Boom.  Offense instantly returned, and the team went on an immediate eight-game win streak, going 26-9 the rest of the way.

As to Lofton, I’ve never seen a well-respected player have such a measurable negative statistical impact on a team.  Almost everything about his game has declined.  Steals?  A 40% success rate with the Indians.  Defense?  Range factor numbers show that Lofton doesn’t get to as many balls as even an average-speed player.  (Btw, in August, I guessed that he’d wind up his stretch in Cleveland with a benchwarmer-level OPS of ".720ish."  He ultimately clocked in at .714.)

Also in August, the Indians tried giving the second base job to a poised 21-year-old named Asdrubal Cabrera, who has been a huge upgrade both at the plate and defensively.  His minor league numbers don’t indicate he’s quite the B+ hitter yet that we’ve seen this season — batting between two All-Stars tends to get you some extra hittable fastballs — but his defensive stats indicate that he may well hold second base in Cleveland for several years.  After which, he’ll become an expensive free agent and go play in a big city somewhere.  Yerrrgh.

So what’s next for the Indians?  A five-game playoff series against New York, starting tomorrow.  It’s a short series, and the Indians have the home field and two quality starting pitchers, so they’ve got a shot.

However.

The Indians are 0-6 against the Yankees this year.

And even if they do get a lead, there’s trouble.

The Indians’ closer, Joe Borowski, has a truly bad 5.07 ERA with eight Blown Saves.  Nine more of his 45 Saves would have been Blown Saves if he’s only had a one-run lead.

More to the point: against the Yankees, Borowski is 0-2 with a 15.43 ERA for his career.  This season, the Yankees’ lineup is batting a combined .379 against him.

Uh-oh.

Next year, though, the Indians should have a definite shot at the whole thing.

PS — getting this in before the first pitch in a few hours: the numbers say Boston is by far the best team in the AL.  Not so clear in the NL, which is a weak field.  I’ll pick Colorado, but it’s only by a hair.  Boston should win the World Series this year.

The Cleveland Indians won 8 more games than I thought they would, finishing with the Central Division title and tied for the best record in all of baseball.

Nobody remembers that stuff in two years, of course, unless you win the World Series.  But still.  If you’re an Indians fan, it’s kind of a big deal.

Fun season.  The team got off to a seriously hot start, then played only about .500 ball for a couple of months, eventually slacking of to pace that would have bullseyed the 88-win level.  But in late July, they acquired Kenny Lofton, not realizing that his skills have begun to erode significantly with age, and batted him near or at the top of the lineup, thinking this might add some pop.

Umm… no, as became obvious pretty quickly.  When Lofton batted either first or second, the Indians went 6-11, scoring an average of 3.4 runs per game, down a full run and a half from their previous output.  Suddenly this above-average team started looking like they might struggle to break .500 by the end..

Finally, on August 25, the team figured out the problem, dropped Lofton and Casey Blake down in the order, and gave more playing time to promising youngster Franklin Gutierrez.  Boom.  Offense instantly returned, and the team went on an immediate eight-game win streak, going 26-9 the rest of the way.

As to Lofton, I’ve never seen a well-respected player have such a measurable negative statistical impact on a team.  Almost everything about his game has declined.  Steals?  A 40% success rate with the Indians.  Defense?  Range factor numbers show that Lofton doesn’t get to as many balls as even an average-speed player.  (Btw, in August, I guessed that he’d wind up his stretch in Cleveland with a benchwarmer-level OPS of ".720ish."  He ultimately clocked in at .714.)

Also in August, the Indians tried giving the second base job to a poised 21-year-old named Asdrubal Cabrera, who has been a huge upgrade both at the plate and defensively.  His minor league numbers don’t indicate he’s quite the B+ hitter yet that we’ve seen this season — batting between two All-Stars tends to get you some extra hittable fastballs — but his defensive stats indicate that he may well hold second base in Cleveland for several years.  After which, he’ll become an expensive free agent and go play in a big city somewhere.  Yerrrgh.

So what’s next for the Indians?  A five-game playoff series against New York, starting tomorrow.  It’s a short series, and the Indians have the home field and two quality starting pitchers, so they’ve got a shot.

However.

The Indians are 0-6 against the Yankees this year.

And even if they do get a lead, there’s trouble.

The Indians’ closer, Joe Borowski, has a truly bad 5.07 ERA with eight Blown Saves.  Nine more of his 45 Saves would have been Blown Saves if he’s only had a one-run lead.

More to the point: against the Yankees, Borowski is 0-2 with a 15.43 ERA for his career.  This season, the Yankees’ lineup is batting a combined .379 against him.

Uh-oh.

Next year, though, the Indians should have a definite shot at the whole thing.

PS — getting this in before the first pitch in a few hours: the numbers say Boston is by far the best team in the AL.  Not so clear in the NL, which is a weak field.  I’ll pick Colorado, but it’s only by a hair.  Boston should win the World Series this year.