As baseball season descends upon us, time for my annual pointless predictions and carping, 2008 edition.

Short version: good team, just like last year. But it’s a big ask for the team to win the division, much less the rest.

C. C. Sabathia, last year’s Cy Young pitcher, is hardly a lock to put up the same numbers this year. Few players are ever consistently that excellent, and while C.C.’s numbers have been improving for a long time, his workload has also been enormous, and that can catch up to a young pitcher (27 this year) in a hurry sometimes. Both he and Fausto Carmona lost their stuff badly at the end of last season, for obvious reasons – their 456 innings pitched was the highest total between 1-2 starting pitchers in the majors.

Which leads us to Carmona, the best surprise of last year. Again, hardly a lock to repeat after a year whose workload came close to endangering his arm. Meanwhile, aging veteran and #3 starter Paul Byrd has struggled badly this spring, although #4 starter Jake Westbrook has recovered his lights-out form of a few years ago. All of the #5 starter options have sucked all spring. On balance, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that the starting staff is probably a notch below last year’s level.

In the bullpen, there’s no way a guy with an ERA over 5.00 belongs as the closer on an alleged World Series team. Joe Borowski is mentally tough and in terrific physical shape, but statistics don’t lie. Unless that ERA comes down sharply, look for lots more blown saves this year, and for Rafael Betancourt or one of the Indians’ other relievers to take over the closer role. Meantime, look for a few extra blown saves.

At the plate, expect continued excellence from Victor Martinez at catcher and Grady Sizemore in centerfield – Sizemore is a good dark horse MVP candidate, in fact – while rightfielder Franklin Gutierrez is growing into an above-average hitter. Elsewhere, however, there are clouds on the horizon.

First baseman Ryan Garko is solid, but at second base, there’s nothing in Asdrubal Cabrera’s minor league stats to indicate he’s more than an average major league hitter, and Josh Barfield barely belongs on a major league bench. At shortstop, Jhonny Peralta still has some upside to his above-average numbers, but Casey Blake continues to have no upside whatsoever at third. He’ll steal five bases, hit 18 home runs, and bat .270, but he’ll also hit his career .219 with runners in scoring position (and just .195 with two outs — making him one of the great statistically consistent choke artists in baseball history). Since he’s still a starter, Blake must have naked blackmail pictures of Chief Wahoo.

At DH, Travis Hafner is coming off a year-long slump, and he’s still waving at spring training pitches, ringing up more strikeouts than hits. Against lefties, he’s pulling off breaking pitches and missing them by two feet. Something’s wrong, and I have no idea what. He’ll probably still bang 25 homers and 100 RBIs, but he’s not the monster he seemed just two years ago.

Left field remains a dead zone. The Indians wisely let go of the declining Kenny Lofton go at the end of the year, but that doesn’t mean they see the obvious solution in their own system.

(btw, some Indians fans seemed bewildered at my insistence that Lofton was on the steep decline, despite clear statistical evidence. Note, however, that as the new season opens, Lofton is already out of baseball entirely after declining a minor-league deal with the Reds and a bargain-bin offer from the Tampa Bay Rays.)

The Indians’ current plan is to replace Lofton with a platoon of two struggling veterans instead of one. Genius. David Dellucci, a 34-year-old .261 hitter with 90 career home runs and 38 career stolen bases, will alternate with Jason Michaels, a 32-year-old career .280 hitter for the Indians over the last two years while racking up the awesome totals of 37 home runs and 18 stolen bases over his entire career.

To make room for Dellucci and Michaels, the Indians sent 26-year-old Ben Francisco to the minors. Never mind that Francisco won the International League batting crown last year, stealing 22 bases on the side, and never mind a spring where he hit .362 with a .617 slugging percentage and a .401 on base average, giving him an all-star-caliber OPS number of 1.021. Never mind that batting skills peak at age 27, so this year Francisco would almost certainly go at least 20-20 and be a strong candidate for Rookie of the Year.

Apparently that’s not enough. Francisco still has something left to prove.

As Indians General Manager Mark Shapiro, as he does every goddam year, prefers to clog up several roster spots with no-upside veterans, leaving the brightest prospect in the organization trapped in the minors.

If only Ben Francisco were only eight years older and had a batting average fifty points lower! He’d be a total lock to start in left field.

All told, the 2008 Indians will be above-average collectively — 93 wins-ish, I’d guess — but no more. Just like last year. Although this time they’ll probably finish second to the Tigers, and possibly miss the wild card this year (to either the Yankees or the Red Sox) by a narrow margin.

Meanwhile, the AL Central is a stronger than last year. The Tigers are loaded this year and should be favorites to win the division, the White Sox and Twins are mildly decent, and the Royals have the potential to surprise people for the first time in many years. The Indians, on the other hand, have added… nothing.

That’s my guess, anyway. Check back in October. Most of what’s here will have been spectacularly wrong, as anybody’s spring predictions tend to be. I only hope the degree of wrongness should be entertaining.

World Series guess: Cubs over Mets in the NL, Tigers over Angels in the AL, Tigers over Cubs in the WS.

(I know that sounds insane right now. Just a guess. But last year, probably by luck, I got the World Series outcome correct before the playoffs began, so this year I’m trying a little earlier.)

UPDATE: In today’s opener, the Indians win 10-8, illustrating the above paragraphs fully with only one real surprise.

Sabathia was indeed human, giving up five runs in 5.1 innings. Not exactly Cy Young stuff. The Indians’ offense, however, managed seven runs before he left, the biggest blow being a three-run homer by Franklin Gutierrez, the team’s second-best young hitter, who nonetheless batted eighth.

Jason Michaels, one of the Indians’ obligatory crappy veterans, for whom the team’s best prospect remains toiling in the minors, batted second and got the same number of hits that you did.

Travis Hafner knocked a homer, but also struck out twice, missing several pitches by a foot or more, pulling off breaking pitches from left-handers like he did when he was a rookie. So more of the same from Travis.

The bullpen couldn’t hold the lead, so the score was tied 7-7 in the eighth. But when the Indians got two men on base with two out, the White Sox pitched around Franklin Gutierrez – walking him on four straight breaking pitches nowhere near the strike zone – specifically to get to world-class choke artist Casey Blake. The Chicago announcers mentioned Blake’s .190 average in these situations, explaining the thinking to the audience. First pitch to Blake: fastball down the middle, showing no respect at all. Blake watched it go by for strike one. So I’m not the only one who understands that Blake usually sucks here.

But something unusual happened next: with two strikes, the White Sox challenged Blake once again, with another fastball straight down the middle – but Blake actually hit this one, driving in the go-ahead runs.

Wow. So you never know.

But back to reality: the White Sox then walked hotshot Grady Sizemore to get to hitless Jason Michaels, who proceeded to strike out, ending the rally. And here’s the thing: he was still batting when I wrote that last sentence. The count was 2-0, in fact. (I swear.) Michaels then swung and missed at three straight pitches, my hand to your god, and I left that sentence intact.

Top of the ninth, World’s Most Overrated Closer™ Joe Borowski comes in with a three-run lead, gives up a solo home run, then with two out, walks a guy to bring a power hitter and the tying run to the plate. Borowski then falls behind 2-0, tempting fate as always. But this time the Indians escaped with a win.

Barely. Again.

UPDATE part duh: Next day, the Indians team website even features this article on how much Blake sucks in the clutch.  You don’t see that every day.