OK, I’m sort of reading that into things. But see if that’s not far from your own understanding:
New Scientist magazine just posted a thing about a study that finds that overconfident people are more likely to (a) wage war and (b) muck up the ensuing battles completely.
Say, now. . . really?
They found this result by setting up wargames with a bunch of volunteers, who had the ability to either negotiate or attack their opponents, all while wearing Clockwork Orange-style brainwave scanners* and genital strain gauges** and guys in labcoats tracked their strategies and progress. Et voila:
"Those who expected to do best tended to do worst,